“Decline in Cardboard Sales Indicates Troubling State of the Economy”

US Paper Mills Experience Production Cutbacks amid Sluggish Consumer Demand

The US paper industry is witnessing a decline in production as large retailers reduce their purchases of cardboard boxes. This trend indicates a slump in consumer spending, a vital part of the US economy. As one of the main materials used in the supply chain, cardboard boxes provide an essential means of tracking consumer demand. With shipments of empty boxes down by 11% YoY in March, the US corrugated products industry has reported decreasing sales.

Integrity Fiber Supply, a paper products maker, and recycler based in Indiana, is experiencing the effects of this shift first-hand, according to Kyle Risinger, one of its commodity traders. He shared at the recent Commodity Trading Week Americas event in Chicago that the slowing demand is due to the inflation rate, causing a decline in the manufacturing sector.

Production Decrease in Paper Mills

At the panel discussion, Risinger revealed that the mills that consistently run at 90-92% at full capacity are now operating at just 70% capacity this year. This drop in output is proof of the impact of inflation, which has curtailed consumer spending. He sees the packaging world as the doorway to observing the economy’s direction, with the signs indicating a massive consumer slowdown.

Key Indicator of Consumer Demand

If cardboard boxes are decreasing in production, it means that retailers are ordering less, resulting in a lower demand for goods. Every industry that utilizes packaging depends on cardboard boxes. From food products to healthcare equipment, and other non-durable consumer goods, retailers heavily rely on these cartons to ship these products. The growth in online sales and e-commerce has further increased the demand for cardboard boxes, which have led to the rise of paper mills; thus, a decrease in production signals a considerable shift in the industry and the economy.

Consumer Spending Curtailed Due to Inflation

The inflation rate is the primary cause of the current decline in consumer spending, which, in turn, affects the demand for cardboard boxes and other goods. The current inflation rate in the United States is the highest it has been over the last 13 years, leading to an increase in import and overall production costs. This rate has contributed to the decline in US economic growth by driving up prices and reducing consumer spending.

Sluggish Consumer Demand Signifies Hurdles for the US Economy

A reduction in consumer spending is a warning sign for the US economy. As consumer demand drops, retailers and other players in the supply chain feel the effects; thus, cardboard boxes are a vital piece of the puzzle. Although corrugated cardboard boxes are recyclable, it may not be enough for the recycling industry to compensate for the drop in production. Overall, a decrease in the production of cardboard boxes and other goods leads to a decrease in economic growth, hampering the nation’s ultimate financial performance.


The US paper industry’s reduction in production is a red flag about the state of the economy. As cardboard boxes are a vital piece in the supply chain puzzle, the current decrease in production indicates a slump in consumer spending. In particular, the inflation rate is cited as the primary reason for the decline in consumer spending. Although recycling and conservation efforts can compensate for the drop in production, it may not be enough to address the challenges presented by sluggish consumer demand. The economy will not perform well if the production of cardboard boxes and other goods continues to decrease.

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