Anticipating a Prolonged Downtrend, Dollar Bears Predict Far-Reaching Consequences

**The Dollar’s Slump and Its Potential Impact on Global Economies**


The dollar is currently experiencing its worst decline since November, leading many strategists and investors to believe that a turning point is imminent for the world’s primary reserve currency. This potential decline has far-reaching consequences for global economies and financial markets. In this article, we will explore the reasons behind the dollar’s slump, the potential effects it may have, and the viewpoints of various experts on the matter.

**The Dollar’s Current Position**

The US currency is currently teetering at its lowest level in over a year due to signs of cooling inflation, which has strengthened the belief that the Federal Reserve will soon stop hiking interest rates. Many investors are also anticipating rate cuts in the future, which would further weaken the dollar. Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, predicts that the Fed’s tightening cycle will transition into an easing cycle, causing the dollar to decline along with other central banks cutting rates.

**Potential Ripple Effects**

If the dollar experiences a long-term decline, it will have significant ripple effects on the global economy. Developing nations will benefit from reduced import prices, leading to the easing of inflation pressures. Currencies like the yen, which has been declining for months, will also likely strengthen, resulting in a shakeup of popular trading strategies linked to a weaker yen. Moreover, a weaker US dollar would boost American firms’ exports at the expense of their European, Asian, and other counterparts. The recent 2% decline in the Bloomberg dollar index has already contributed to gains in greenback-priced commodities such as oil and gold.

**Investors Anticipating a Downtrend in the Dollar**

Many investors have been waiting for a downtrend in the dollar for months, and the recent selloff has fund managers from M&G Investments to UBS Asset Management preparing for the outperformance of currencies like the yen and emerging-market currencies. Peter Vassallo, a fund manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, believes that the dollar will remain weak in the coming months and expects gains for currencies like the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Norwegian krone.

**Factors to Consider**

It is important to consider the historical context and potential risks associated with betting on Fed rate cuts that could weaken the dollar prematurely. Earlier this year, there was speculation of a protracted downtrend in the dollar, which did not materialize as US economic data indicated that the Fed was not stopping its rate hikes. This time, the threat is that history may repeat itself, especially with the Fed likely to tighten further soon.

**Expert Perspectives**

Georgina Taylor, at Invesco Asset Management, is currently observing the data and not ready to reduce her dollar exposure just yet. She believes that the battle to tame inflation is not over and highlights that the absolute difference in real yields remains high. On the other hand, Michael Cahill at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the potential downturn in the dollar to be shallower than previous cycles due to US economic resilience. However, if the Fed concludes its inflation fight while the European Central Bank maintains higher rates for longer, the dollar’s support could crumble.

**Valuation Measures and the Dollar Smile Theory**

Valuation measures also indicate that the dollar is overvalued, particularly against the yen. This overvaluation could potentially fade as markets take this into account. Paresh Upadhyaya, director of currency strategy at Amundi Asset Management, attributes this overvaluation to structural headwinds such as the US’s twin deficits in trade and budget. Additionally, the dollar smile theory suggests that the greenback’s value typically increases during severe slumps or robust expansions in the US, while it falters during periods of moderate growth. Consequently, if the US achieves a soft landing, it is likely to result in a weaker dollar.


In conclusion, the dollar’s slump has caught the attention of strategists and investors, who believe that a turning point for the world’s primary reserve currency is approaching. If the dollar continues to decline, it will have significant implications for global economies and financial markets. While some experts are cautious, believing that the battle against inflation is not yet over, others anticipate a weaker dollar and are positioning themselves accordingly. Factors such as US economic resilience, valuation measures, and the dollar smile theory all contribute to the ongoing debate surrounding the future of the US dollar.

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